The year 2025 promises to be a pivotal period for the US tech industry, with a projected record $537 billion in spending on apps, devices and gadgets, according to the Consumer Technology Association’s (CTA) annual forecast, highlighted by TechCrunch. This growth, equivalent to a 3.2% increase over 2024, reflects the consolidation of technology as a mainstay of US consumer spending. However, the outlook is not without risk: the tariffs proposed by President-elect Donald Trump could become a significant brake on the sector’s expansion.
Unprecedented but threatened growth
CES 2025 in Las Vegas was the setting for CTA futurist Brian Comiskey to offer an optimistic but cautious view of the industry’s future. According to Comiskey, 2025 could mark the start of a ‘super cycle’ of technology spending, driven by innovations in artificial intelligence (AI) and consumer enthusiasm, especially among younger consumers. However, he warned that tariffs on tech products, such as those proposed by the Trump administration, could have a negative impact of between $90bn and $143bn on consumer purchasing power.
However, the numbers back up this concern. According to the CTA report, a 10% to 20% tariff on all imports could increase the price of laptops and tablets by 46%, video game consoles by 40% and smartphones by 26%. In the case of a 60% increase in tariffs on products from China, sales could fall dramatically: by as much as 68% on tablets and laptops, 58% on video game consoles and 37% on smartphones. These products, pillars of technological demand, would be the most affected, both in terms of price and accessibility for consumers.
Artificial intelligence, a key player in the technological boom
Despite potential barriers, artificial intelligence emerges as the big driver of technology spending by 2025. The integration of AI into devices such as laptops, smartphones and tablets is redefining consumer expectations. Advanced features, such as those offered by Apple Intelligence and Microsoft Copilot+, have captured the market’s attention, standing out for their ability to simplify tasks, improve personalisation and boost productivity.
But the influence of AI is not limited to traditional products. Devices such as fitness trackers, smart TVs and childcare equipment are also incorporating these technologies. Beyond practical functions, AI has become a key differentiator that consumers are willing to pay for, even if its actual impact on the user experience is debatable.
Tariffs: the big challenge for the ‘golden age’ of tech
Moreover, despite the potential barriers, artificial intelligence emerges as the big driver of technology spending by 2025.The integration of AI into devices such as laptops, smartphones and tablets is redefining consumer expectations.Advanced features, such as those offered by Apple Intelligence and Microsoft Copilot+, have captured the market’s attention, standing out for their ability to simplify tasks, improve personalisation and boost productivity.
On the other hand, the influence of AI is not limited to traditional products. Devices such as fitness trackers, smart TVs and childcare equipment are also incorporating these technologies. Beyond practical functions, AI has become a key differentiator that consumers are willing to pay for, even if its actual impact on the user experience is debatable.
The year 2025 has the potential to be a turning point for the US technology industry. With a combination of innovation, generational enthusiasm and a growing adoption of AI, the sector is poised to reach record numbers. However, trade tensions and tariff policies could pose a significant obstacle to this growth.
